[h=1]Veteran bounce-back candidates[/h][h=3]Larry Fitzgerald among five veterans who could return to form this season[/h]
By Field Yates | ESPN Insider
With NFL training camps underway, we begin the monthlong season of optimism. Every team enters late July with that upward-looking glance toward the postseason.
Twelve clubs will achieve that goal, while 20 others will fall short.
Players enter training camp with individual goals, and like teams, some will achieve them, and others will fall short -- star players included.
Five star players enter 2013 looking to bounce back from disappointing 2012 campaigns that saw dramatic downticks in their individual statistics. Let's examine each of their prospects for the upcoming season, and whether the regression will continue or if a return to their old production is expected.
[h=3]Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals[/h]
2012 stats: 71 catches, 798 yards, 4 TDs
2013 outlook: Fitzgerald had the unfortunate experience of playing with a roulette of mediocre quarterbacks during the 2012 season, the primary reason for his pedestrian stats. The Cardinals understood as much, parting ways with John Skelton and Kevin Kolb this offseason and trading for Carson Palmer to take over as the starter.
But back to Fitzgerald, who remains among the most talented receivers (I'd argue he's second behind Calvin Johnson) in football. He has a rare catch frame, exceptional speed, precise route running, strength, smarts and virtually every desirable trait in a receiver. There's probably only one way to stop him, and that's put a crummy quarterback under center in Arizona -- what we saw last season. Palmer, a strong-armed, deliberate thrower, should boost Fitzgerald's value and allow him to easily surpass 1,000 yards once again. Also working in Fitzgerald's favor? The emergence of Michael Floyd, a trendy breakout pick entering his second NFL season.
The ceiling is justifiably high on Fitzgerald this season. If Palmer stays healthy, count on a return to Fitzgerald's 90-catch, 1,000-plus yard and 8-10 touchdown form.
[h=3]Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]
2012 stats: 86 carries, 414 yards, 1 TD
2013 outlook: Injuries stunted MJD's production in 2012, but he was still on pace for 1,300-plus yards through five games (he was hurt early in the sixth game he played in). The Jaguars announced recently that he was medically cleared to begin training camp, and though they are tweaking things some offensively (a reliance on zone blocking schemes is expected), there's still plenty to like about Jones-Drew this season.
To start: he's an exceptional blend of vision, power, contact strength, elusiveness and pass-catching ability from the backfield. Jones-Drew has never been a blazer, but he's fully capable of handling a massive workload and enters a contract year looking for a big payday this offseason. There are quarterback concerns in Jacksonville, all the more reason for the team to rely heavily on MJD early. While his foot injury must be considered, Jones-Drew has a resurgent season well within reach, something that will make his fantasy owners very happy.
[h=3]Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers[/h]
2012 stats: 338 comp./527 att., 3,606 yards, 26 TDs, 15 INTs
2013 outlook: Rivers, 31, has had major struggles with turnovers during the past two seasons, including poor decisions in the passing game and 20 fumbles -- many behind the line of scrimmage on strip sacks. The offensive line in San Diego is uninspiring at best, leading some to wonder if Rivers will even have time to make the downfield throws he once thrived on with Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd as his primary pass-catchers. Ryan Mathews has yet to prove he can be a consistent NFL starter, Antonio Gates just turned 33 and while there's talent in the San Diego receiving corps, each player has questions to answer.
The Chargers find themselves in a unique transition period right now, with not enough talent to compete with the AFC's elite but enough to hover at or near .500, especially if Rivers plays at a high level. The introduction of head coach Mike McCoy, a trusted quarterback mind, should lead to fewer turnovers from Rivers (and he'll still get his 25-30 touchdown throws), but don't count on the postseason in San Diego in 2013.
[h=3]Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans[/h]
2012 stats: 276 carries, 1,243 yards, 6 TDs
2013 outlook: To be fair, Johnson's statistical showing in 2012 was an upgrade from his dud 2011, but when parsed by the week, one saw an inconsistency in performance. He had weeks with 4, 17, 24, 24, 44 and 28 yards juggled against five 100-plus yard performances. Johnson's speed remains electric and his home run potential on any play matches up with nearly any other back, but the tough yards are still hard for him to come by (he was last among qualifying running backs in 2012 with just 1.2 yards per rush after contact).
The Titans fortified the interior of their offensive line by signing the best available free-agent guard (Andy Levitre), drafting a mauler out of Alabama (Chance Warmack) and taking a fourth-round center (Brian Schwenke). An area of weakness has quickly turned to a potential strength, and that bodes well for Johnson. Johnson succeeded in 2012 when making his cuts early and before the play fully developed, preventing upfield penetration from defenders to take him down. While others have questions about whether Johnson has the power to ever be a consistent back again, I'm optimistic that the new-look line will be enough to set the wheels in motion for a nearly 1,500-yard season. As always, expect a few long runs sprinkled in.
[h=3]LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles[/h]
2012 stats: 200 carries, 840 yards, 2 touchdowns
2013 outlook: Consider 2012 the floor for McCoy (who missed four games) and 2011 the ceiling (when he totaled 20 touchdowns). The question is: Which end of the spectrum does he wind up closer to in 2013? Out is Andy Reid and in is Chip Kelly, which, if his tenure at Oregon suggests anything, is a positive for McCoy and other Eagles backs. The tempo will be fast and the reliance on the ground game should be steady, which means McCoy will continue to get the touches he received under Andy Reid (plus possibly more). McCoy's stop-on-a-dime quickness and unique ability to make defenders miss hasn't gone anywhere, and though Bryce Brown flashed in spot duty last season, there's no threat to McCoy's bell-cow status back in Philly.
McCoy's touches and yardage from the 2011 season (just over 1,600 yards on 321 rushes/receptions) are a reasonable expectation for 2013, with his touchdown total as a less likely repeat scenario. That's nothing related to McCoy's skill set, rather a testament as to how touchdown numbers can vary significantly from season to season.
By Field Yates | ESPN Insider
With NFL training camps underway, we begin the monthlong season of optimism. Every team enters late July with that upward-looking glance toward the postseason.
Twelve clubs will achieve that goal, while 20 others will fall short.
Players enter training camp with individual goals, and like teams, some will achieve them, and others will fall short -- star players included.
Five star players enter 2013 looking to bounce back from disappointing 2012 campaigns that saw dramatic downticks in their individual statistics. Let's examine each of their prospects for the upcoming season, and whether the regression will continue or if a return to their old production is expected.
[h=3]Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals[/h]
2012 stats: 71 catches, 798 yards, 4 TDs
2013 outlook: Fitzgerald had the unfortunate experience of playing with a roulette of mediocre quarterbacks during the 2012 season, the primary reason for his pedestrian stats. The Cardinals understood as much, parting ways with John Skelton and Kevin Kolb this offseason and trading for Carson Palmer to take over as the starter.
But back to Fitzgerald, who remains among the most talented receivers (I'd argue he's second behind Calvin Johnson) in football. He has a rare catch frame, exceptional speed, precise route running, strength, smarts and virtually every desirable trait in a receiver. There's probably only one way to stop him, and that's put a crummy quarterback under center in Arizona -- what we saw last season. Palmer, a strong-armed, deliberate thrower, should boost Fitzgerald's value and allow him to easily surpass 1,000 yards once again. Also working in Fitzgerald's favor? The emergence of Michael Floyd, a trendy breakout pick entering his second NFL season.
The ceiling is justifiably high on Fitzgerald this season. If Palmer stays healthy, count on a return to Fitzgerald's 90-catch, 1,000-plus yard and 8-10 touchdown form.
[h=3]Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]
2012 stats: 86 carries, 414 yards, 1 TD
2013 outlook: Injuries stunted MJD's production in 2012, but he was still on pace for 1,300-plus yards through five games (he was hurt early in the sixth game he played in). The Jaguars announced recently that he was medically cleared to begin training camp, and though they are tweaking things some offensively (a reliance on zone blocking schemes is expected), there's still plenty to like about Jones-Drew this season.
To start: he's an exceptional blend of vision, power, contact strength, elusiveness and pass-catching ability from the backfield. Jones-Drew has never been a blazer, but he's fully capable of handling a massive workload and enters a contract year looking for a big payday this offseason. There are quarterback concerns in Jacksonville, all the more reason for the team to rely heavily on MJD early. While his foot injury must be considered, Jones-Drew has a resurgent season well within reach, something that will make his fantasy owners very happy.
[h=3]Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers[/h]
2012 stats: 338 comp./527 att., 3,606 yards, 26 TDs, 15 INTs
2013 outlook: Rivers, 31, has had major struggles with turnovers during the past two seasons, including poor decisions in the passing game and 20 fumbles -- many behind the line of scrimmage on strip sacks. The offensive line in San Diego is uninspiring at best, leading some to wonder if Rivers will even have time to make the downfield throws he once thrived on with Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd as his primary pass-catchers. Ryan Mathews has yet to prove he can be a consistent NFL starter, Antonio Gates just turned 33 and while there's talent in the San Diego receiving corps, each player has questions to answer.
The Chargers find themselves in a unique transition period right now, with not enough talent to compete with the AFC's elite but enough to hover at or near .500, especially if Rivers plays at a high level. The introduction of head coach Mike McCoy, a trusted quarterback mind, should lead to fewer turnovers from Rivers (and he'll still get his 25-30 touchdown throws), but don't count on the postseason in San Diego in 2013.
[h=3]Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans[/h]
2012 stats: 276 carries, 1,243 yards, 6 TDs
2013 outlook: To be fair, Johnson's statistical showing in 2012 was an upgrade from his dud 2011, but when parsed by the week, one saw an inconsistency in performance. He had weeks with 4, 17, 24, 24, 44 and 28 yards juggled against five 100-plus yard performances. Johnson's speed remains electric and his home run potential on any play matches up with nearly any other back, but the tough yards are still hard for him to come by (he was last among qualifying running backs in 2012 with just 1.2 yards per rush after contact).
The Titans fortified the interior of their offensive line by signing the best available free-agent guard (Andy Levitre), drafting a mauler out of Alabama (Chance Warmack) and taking a fourth-round center (Brian Schwenke). An area of weakness has quickly turned to a potential strength, and that bodes well for Johnson. Johnson succeeded in 2012 when making his cuts early and before the play fully developed, preventing upfield penetration from defenders to take him down. While others have questions about whether Johnson has the power to ever be a consistent back again, I'm optimistic that the new-look line will be enough to set the wheels in motion for a nearly 1,500-yard season. As always, expect a few long runs sprinkled in.
[h=3]LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles[/h]
2012 stats: 200 carries, 840 yards, 2 touchdowns
2013 outlook: Consider 2012 the floor for McCoy (who missed four games) and 2011 the ceiling (when he totaled 20 touchdowns). The question is: Which end of the spectrum does he wind up closer to in 2013? Out is Andy Reid and in is Chip Kelly, which, if his tenure at Oregon suggests anything, is a positive for McCoy and other Eagles backs. The tempo will be fast and the reliance on the ground game should be steady, which means McCoy will continue to get the touches he received under Andy Reid (plus possibly more). McCoy's stop-on-a-dime quickness and unique ability to make defenders miss hasn't gone anywhere, and though Bryce Brown flashed in spot duty last season, there's no threat to McCoy's bell-cow status back in Philly.
McCoy's touches and yardage from the 2011 season (just over 1,600 yards on 321 rushes/receptions) are a reasonable expectation for 2013, with his touchdown total as a less likely repeat scenario. That's nothing related to McCoy's skill set, rather a testament as to how touchdown numbers can vary significantly from season to season.
